RICHMOND, Va. — The Virginia Supreme Court struck down a Democratic congressional redistricting plan that had won voter approval, dealing a major setback to Democrats in a nationwide redistricting battle ahead of November's midterm elections.
The court's 4-3 decision Friday invalidated a referendum that could have helped Democrats win up to four additional U.S. House seats.
The plan, approved April 21 by voters, was ruled invalid because state lawmakers violated procedural requirements when referring it to the ballot.
"They basically said that the Democrats did not follow the process," said CBS 6 political analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth.
The court determined that the legislature had to vote to put the referendum on the ballot prior to an election, but "in 2025 the election was already taking place because there was early voting."
Four justices ruled that "the common sense understanding of an election is not just on Election Day, but when early voting starts," Holsworth explained. "Election Day is the end of the election, not the beginning of the election."
The ruling dramatically alters Virginia's political landscape.
Democrats had drawn the new map "thinking they would have a 10 to 1 advantage," but "that advantage has been erased," Holsworth said.
Democrats currently hold just a 6-5 majority in the state's congressional delegation.
Despite the setback, Holsworth predicted Democrats will still gain ground.
"I still think the Democrats are likely, barring some changes in the political atmosphere, to pick up at least one seat and potentially be competitive for a second," he said. "So I think the Democrats are likely to wind up with seven, potentially 8 in this time, but they're going to be nowhere near 10."
U.S. House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries said the decision "will not stand," though Holsworth expressed skepticism.
"I don't usually bet on politics, but I think the odds are pretty, pretty slight that his statement will actually come to fruition," he said.
The Virginia ruling, combined with a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that severely weakened the Voting Rights Act, has intensified the nationwide redistricting battle.
Holsworth said the decision "certainly makes it much tougher for the Democrats to take the House."
He highlighted a stark contrast between Democratic and Republican approaches to redistricting.
"All these Democratic states that went and put constitutional changes in six or eight years ago to have these bipartisan commissions, they are at a tremendous disadvantage against these Republican states that don't have that," Holsworth said.
Republican states "are now redistricting largely to eliminate African American seats in the South," he noted. "They are redistricting in a day. Florida did it in a day. Tennessee did it in a day. Alabama was voting even though there was a power outage in the legislature. They're just going full speed ahead."
Meanwhile, Virginia Democrats "put it on a referendum, they spend $80 million, they get the people's vote, but because they had a mistake in the process, they find themselves at a tremendous disadvantage," Holsworth said. "That's really what we've seen nationally."
The ruling makes Democratic hopes of regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives significantly more challenging, though Holsworth said it remains achievable despite the procedural setback that cost the party millions in campaign spending and months of effort.
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