What happened in Virginia? Political analyst explains midterm election results.

RICHMOND, Va. — Virginia voters showed a significant shift toward Democratic candidates in Tuesday's midterm election, including in areas traditionally considered Republican strongholds, according to a Virginia Commonwealth University political scientist analyzing election-night returns.

John Aughenbaugh, a VCU political scientist, said during a live interview that Democratic challengers were outperforming their party's 2024 results across much of Virginia's 1st, 2nd and 5th Congressional Districts.

"If you take a deeper dive into the various local governments and jurisdictions within those districts, in almost, I'd say, probably about 90 to 95 percent of them, the voters went for the Democratic challenger at a greater percentage than they did in 2024," Aughenbaugh said.

He called the movement "a pretty significant shift," particularly because it was showing up even in Republican strongholds.

During the interview conducted before midnight on Election Day, Democratic challengers were slightly ahead in Virginia's 1st and 2nd Congressional District races, though neither had been called.

The 5th District was also drawing attention because of how close the contest had become in an area that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Aughenbaugh said the shift toward Democratic candidates could help explain the competitiveness of the races.

"Remember, these were districts that were carried by Republicans as recently as two years ago," he said.

The movement in congressional races came on a night when Virginia voters also approved a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.

The measure creates a "fundamental right to reproductive freedom" in the Virginia Constitution, according to The Associated Press.

Abortion-rights advocates secured victory on the Virginia measure as voters nationwide decided 145 state ballot questions, including proposals involving abortion, congressional redistricting and transgender athletes in sports.

The results in Virginia were part of broader Democratic gains Aughenbaugh was watching nationally. During the interview, he pointed to movement in both U.S. House and Senate races and described the night as potentially historic for Democrats.

In Virginia's 1st District, Aughenbaugh highlighted the significance of the challenge facing longtime Republican incumbent Rob Wittman, who has held the seat since 2007.

While the district has generally been considered more competitive than Virginia's 5th District, Aughenbaugh said Tuesday's returns were challenging a longstanding political assumption about the seat.

"We've generally had in this state that a Republican will take, you know, the 1st District," Aughenbaugh said. "Apparently, not tonight."

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