RICHMOND, Va. — Former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears are set to debate on television Thursday in their first and likely only meeting of the Virginia gubernatorial race.
Spanberger --- a Democrat critical of the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress over Medicaid cuts and federal workforce layoffs --- will be defending not just her policy ideas, but also her ticket, following recent scandals involving Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, according to longtime CBS 6 political analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth.
Jones came under fire last week after it was revealed that in 2022 he once texted his former colleague in the General Assembly that in a hypothetical thought game, he would "put two bullets" in then-Speaker of the House of Delegates Todd Gilbert. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Virginia Republicans have called for Jones to exit the race based on those comments. While condemning the comments, Virginia Democrats have not pushed the issue further.
“Abigail Spanberger, a week ago, had one purpose for [tomorrow], which was not to make a big mistake,” Holsworth said. “Now it's a different night. The biggest story coming out of [tomorrow] evening is going to be ‘what does Abigail Spanberger say about Jay Jones?’ Or you might say, ‘how far under the bus does she throw him?’”
Spanberger has held a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls against Earle-Sears.
Christopher Newport University released a poll Monday that had Spanberger up with a 10-point lead.
That poll was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, before Jones’ 2022 texts were made public.
Spanberger's lead is two points smaller than it was in the last CNU poll.
Six percent of voters said they are still undecided.
"I don't think Earle-Sears has much to lose because she's losing," Holsworth said. "Most of these polls have her down eight points, 10 points. That's almost an insurmountable figure to overcome in the last few weeks of a campaign."
While the Jay Jones issue is enough to put Spanberger in an uncomfortable position, Holsworth said he does not expect it to level the playing field.
Since the scandal involves the bottom of the ticket, Holsworth said Earle-Sears's efforts to tie Jones's judgment to Spanberger can only do so much damage.
Spanberger has largely focused on economic issues, reproductive healthcare and decrying Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill.”
She broke with many Democrats by saying she would not support a full appeal of right-to-work.
Earle-Sears has promoted private school access, tough-on-crime policies and ending Virginia’s “car tax.”
Economy, healthcare, and threats to democracy on the minds of voters
Likely voters indicated in the CNU poll that the issues at the top of their minds are threats to democracy and inflation at 19% and 18% respectively.
Following those top two issues are immigration and healthcare, which both polled at 10%.
Spanberger beat out Earle-Sears on all 12 issues likely voters were asked about, but by varying margins
"What we're seeing in almost all the polls is that most Virginians are, by and large, concerned about the state of the economy, the state of inflation, and to some degree the threat to democracy that's going on, and Earle-Sears has very little to say about that right now,” Holsworth said.
Earle-Sears shook up her campaign’s leadership in July following polls by Virginia Commonwealth University and Roanoke College that had her down in the double digits, according to Politico.
Since then, she and Republicans have put a hyperfocus on transgender issues in Northern Virginia.
Governor Glenn Youngkin does not believe the polls that put Spanberger ahead of Earle-Sears when it comes to the handling of transgender issues.
"I think it's a nonsense poll. They've always been nonsense," he said. "They haven't been able to actually call a race early, at least my whole political career, and that's been five years. So I just think they're bad at it, and I think they need to go assess what they do when they poll, because they really haven't gotten one right."
Democrats have attempted to tie Earle-Sears to Trump, who has an underwater approval rating of 41% with likely voters, according to the CNU poll. 56% of people disapprove of the president.
Earle-Sears said it was "time to move on" from Trump in 2022 after the president lost his first reelection bid to President Joe Biden.
Trump has yet to endorse Earle-Sears, even in the final weeks of the race --- though he did endorse Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is polling better than Earle-Sears.
"She's not going to be able to win on Jason Miyares’ coattails, that doesn't happen, Holsworth said. "You don't have the bottom of the ticket driving the top of the ticket."
That there is a debate at all is significant. An earlier proposed debate at Virginia State University produced by CBS and moderated by Bill Fitzgerald never came to be. After Spanberger agreed to the debate, Earle-Sears declined the invitation, which she attributed to a scheduling conflict. Thursday's debate will be held at Norfolk State University.
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