NEWPORT NEWS, Va. — Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center released its latest poll on Virginia’s statewide races on Monday, showing that Democrats are still holding a comfortable lead against Republicans, but with narrowing margins.
According to the poll conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, former congresswoman and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger has a 10-point lead over Republican nominee and incumbent lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
Spanberger's lead is two points smaller than the one last recorded by CNU pollsters on Sept. 18. Six percent of voters are still undecided on their pick for governor.
In the lieutenant governor race, Democrat Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Chesterfield, has a nine-point lead over her Republican opponent, radio show host John Reid. Hashmi’s lead also shrank by two points, though 12% of voters said they were undecided on their favorite candidate for the less-spotlighted race.
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The attorney general race is looking to be closer of a call with former democratic Del. Jay Jones leading Republican incumbent Jason Miyares by six points, one point less than the last poll. Nine percent of voters said they are undecided.
The poll was fully conducted before Jay Jones came under fire from both sides of the aisle — including the other Democratic candidates on the ticket, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance — after it was revealed he once texted a colleague in the General Assembly that he would like to kill then-Speaker of the House of Delegates Todd Gilbert.
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But as Wason Center research director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo put it, statewide races tend to be low-information races. Polls have not shown a significant shift in support for anyone on the Democratic ticket.
The Wason Center polled 805 likely voters, meaning participants indicated they would vote, and they voted in at least two of the last four elections.
Threats to democracy, economy and immigration continue to be top issues
Likely voters indicated the issues at the top of their minds are threats to democracy and inflation at 19% and 18% respectively. Following the top two issues are immigration and healthcare, which both polled at 10%.
Spanberger beat out Earle-Sears on all 12 issues likely voters were asked about, but by varying margins. Spanberger’s best issues are handling climate change, reproductive rights and healthcare. Her worst issues are taxes and crime, which she still leads Earle-Sears on by 4% and 2% respectively.
Democrats care more about threats to democracy, healthcare and inflation — and so do independent voters, according to the poll. Republicans care more about inflation, immigration and crime.
Earle-Sears will have a difficult path to victory if she cannot gain ground with voters in the next four weeks leading up to election day, according to Bromley-Trujillo. Raising the most money is also an important factor for candidates, which Democrats are leading in for every race, except for Jones’ attorney general campaign.
“We also have a history in Virginia of voting against the party in the White House,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
The Wason Center is planning to conduct its final poll for the election around Oct. 20 — two weeks before Election Day.
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