RICHMOND, Va. β The State Council of Higher Education for Virginia shared new insights into education trends during a meeting at the Virginia Museum of History and Culture.
Experts noted that Virginia's declining birth rate is affecting elementary grades across the state. While steady recovery from pandemic-impacted groups helped stabilize enrollment, Virginia schools are seeing smaller class sizes overall.
"There is some volatility in this curve. There will be a little burn felt in the first few years, as the last of those exceptionally large cohorts graduates and we're left only, what I would call the trending births cohorts that entered Virginia schools after 2013," one presenter said.
Officials expect 12th grade class sizes to decline in the fall of 2026 as the last of the "peak births" cohorts graduate this spring.
The demographic shift reflects broader national trends where declining birth rates are creating long-term impacts on educational planning and resource allocation.
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