RICHMOND, Va. β Virginia Democrats hold leads in all three statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, but their margins have narrowed according to a new poll from the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears 49% to 40% in the gubernatorial race, down from a 12-point advantage in the school's July poll.
In the lieutenant governor's contest, Democrat State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi maintains a 4-point lead over Republican John Reid, a drop from her 10-point advantage in July.
The attorney general's race shows Democrat Jay Jones leading incumbent Republican Jason Miyares 47% to 41%, down from a 9-point difference in the previous poll.
The poll sampled 804 eligible Virginia voters between August 18-28.
Voter priorities remain consistent
The poll found voter concerns mirror those from July, with the rising cost of living topping the list of priorities at 28%. Women's reproductive rights, immigration and education follow as key issues driving voter decisions.
Former Gov. Doug Wilder emphasized the importance of independent voters in determining the outcome, noting that nearly half remain undecided according to the poll.
CBS 6 Political Analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth said Sears has been focused recently on crime and transgender issues and believes that strategy will change.
"My sense is that the Sears campaign at some point is going to have to start talking about economic issues. Going to start have to make contrast with Abigail Spanberger on cost of living issues, because if they just run this culture war issues, my sense is that this campaign is going to have a lot of trouble," Holsworth said.
On the importance of independent voters, Holsworth noted that national polling shows independents moving away from President Donald Trump, which could benefit Spanberger.
For Republicans to be competitive down-ballot and a potential split ticket in the statewide races, Holsworth said Sears needs to significantly improve her performance in the governor's race.
"If she runs strongly, if she gets it to three points or four points, then all of a sudden you have the situation where a down ballot split ticket could emerge, but it's not going to emerge if she's almost losing by double digits," Holsworth said. "I think what we have to recognize is a lot of undecided voters in gubernatorial elections may not be voters come Election Day, that what happens in Virginia is that there's about a million plus person drop off from the presidential race. So motivating your own base is extremely important."
Early voting begins Friday, September 19, with 45 days of early voting available before Election Day on November 4.
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