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How Ana will impact Virginia and the Carolinas

Posted at 10:53 PM, May 08, 2015
and last updated 2015-05-09 07:35:40-04

RICHMOND, Va.  -- Subtropical Storm Ana intensified Friday evening and is a visually impressive subtropical storm about 150 miles SE of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

The storm will likely move very slowly northwestward this weekend, making landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina state line.  Ana could make the transition to a true tropical system before making landfall, but the impacts will still be the same, with heavy surf, life-threatening riptides, flooding rains, and strong winds.

Below is a snapshot of the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

TROPICS forecast cone

The impact to Virginia will be felt most directly on Monday, as Ana, likely a depression at the time, moves through southside Virginia and Hampton Roads.

The four snapshots below show landfall early Sunday morning, with an exit off the Virginia coast late Monday:
ANA7ASUN

ANA7PSUN

ANA7AM

ANA7PM

Locally heavy rain will be the primary threat for southern and southeastern Virginia as Ana moves through on Monday.  Winds will not be an issue as the storm will have been over land for 24 hours and had plenty of time to weaken.  The dynamics won't be in place for much of a hail or tornado threat.

Zach Hurricane Impact

Models show a wide range of rainfall possibilities, but as of tonight, this particular model agrees most with what I'm expecting from Ana.  Any change in the track and intensity will have big implications on the realized rainfall.

state rain RPM 12k

Meteorologists Mike Goldberg and Mike Stone will be in the CBS 6 Weather Center over the weekend, keeping you updated with any and all changes in the track, intensity, and timing of Ana as it approaches the area.  Have a great weekend, Happy Mothers' Day to all the moms, and Stay With CBS 6, The Weather Authority.  -Zach

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