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Updated model predicts Virginia's COVID-19 peak in April

Posted at 8:10 PM, Apr 06, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-07 11:57:20-04

RICHMOND, Va. -- Virginia's COVID-19 peak will hit in late April, according to the latest model from The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Previously, the model predicted that Virginia's peak wouldn't be until late May into early June.

Gov. Northam said on Monday that the state will continue to watch and adjust based on the predictions by various models.

"We will certainly continue to follow the trends. And you know, if and when we need to make adjustments and in our guidelines, we will certainly do that," Northam said.

The model has predicted that April 22 will be Virginia’s deadliest day for COVID-19 related deaths.

"We've seen some interesting shifts in the projections, just a couple days ago we were talking about most of the models that we were looking at were looking at a peak of disease that would occur between the second week of May and perhaps into the beginning of June," Dr. Danny Avula, with the Health Director for Richmond and Henrico, said. "So we'll continue to monitor our cases here in Virginia, here in Central Virginia, the health systems are continuing to look at their own data, to look at their bed count, and their intensive care unit capacity, and based on more localized data developing their own models."

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