AAA predicts Labor Day could reach pre-pandemic levels

RICHMOND, Va. --  If you have travel plans for Labor Day weekend, you're not alone. AAA expects holiday travel to come close to pre-pandemic levels this year.

"It could be very, very busy this weekend," explained Morgan Dean, AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesperson. "When you look back at Independence Day, and you look back at Memorial Day, we saw the trend this year to near pre-pandemic travel numbers."

Across the country, the average gas prices heading into the holiday weekend are $3.81 per gallon, and in Virginia, the state average is $3.60.

This time last year, average gas prices for Labor Day weekend were about $0.70 cheaper, but that's a major improvement from June when Virginia recorded its highest average gas price ever at $4.86 a gallon.

"There might be a chance for drivers to say, we didn't really get in some of the trips that we wanted to do this summer, and prices have dropped some now, so maybe it's the chance for us to do that," said Dean.

Dean notes the good news is that the price of crude oil is down. As the summer winds down, we’ve also seen demand drop off, which are two major factors that control the price you pay at the pump.

"If we continue to see demand lower, which we expect going into fall, and we continue to see crude oil prices stay at the level where they are or continue to drop some, we could continue to see gas prices stabilize or drop," Dean said.

While this year's Labor Day prices are still higher than in years past, they aren't the highest recorded. In 2012, we had just had a tropical system come through the Gulf of Mexico, which caused several shutdowns of oil and oil refining.

AAA expects gas prices to continue to decline or stabilize a little bit over the next few weeks, but we are approaching hurricane season which could disrupt the market.

"Hurricanes have the potential to really disrupt fuel by either getting it out of the ground or the refining process," Dean explained. "There are so many oil platforms out in the Gulf of Mexico, there's so many for refining operations along the Gulf of Mexico, if we have a big hurricane, or a big tropical system that comes in across there, they start getting people off of those platforms and they start shutting down operations. If we see damage or shutdowns to pipelines or to refining operations, that can impact gas prices and start to push prices up."

For those planning to travel this weekend, AAA predicts Friday afternoon will be the busiest travel time, followed by Monday afternoon, so plan to leave early if you want to beat the traffic.