'World economy will be affected' by Ukraine invasion, Virginia economics professor says

'The markets don't just wait to have a response'
APTOPIX Ukraine Invasion
Posted at 6:35 PM, Feb 25, 2022
and last updated 2022-02-26 08:44:33-05

RICHMOND, Va. -- While Ukraine and its people are bearing the brunt of the Russia invasion, the rest of the world and the United States will feel the ripple effects of the conflict, including in their wallets.

Among the sectors that will see am impact are those where both Russia and Ukraine are heavily involved.

One is petroleum and natural gas, which Russia is a large exporter of, and Americans will likely feel at the pump. However, Dr. Leslie Stratton, the chair of VCU's Economics Department, said prices were already climbing in the lead-up to the conflict.

The average cost of regular gas in Virginia is $3.42, which is up one cent from yesterday and up 26 cents from a month ago, according to AAA.

Stratton also noted the stock market will fluctuate as people react not only to issues of supply and demand, but to the news of what is happening.

"The markets don't just wait to have a response," Stratton said. "They try to anticipate that response in advance."

And there will be more disruption to the supply chain, which is something that was already hurt by the pandemic.

"Another likely effect of this is that this will put additional inflationary pressures on the economy, because, again, of supply chain disruptions, because of the effect on wheat and energy prices," Stratton said. "So the Fed has now another problem that, you know, a greater problem than it had a week ago."

Another likely effect of this is that this will put additional inflationary pressures on the economy.

Similar analysis from Virginia State University Economics Professor Dr. Ceslav Ciobanu, who also offered insights as a former ambassador to the U.S. for the Republic of Moldova, a country bordering Ukraine to the west.

"The whole economy, world economy will be affected by such kind of conflicts," Ciobanu said.

Ciobanu said the invasion did not surprise him as Russia has been stirring up separatist causes in former Soviet regions, including his own country, as a pretext to get involved.

"Divide and rule is, was, and is still the motto of all authoritarian leaders," Ciobanu said.

He worries that other countries could be the next dominoes to fall to Putin if he continues unchecked.

The U.S. and Western allies have announced sanctions against Russia as punishment, but Stratton said it is unclear how long it may take for those impacts to be felt.

"They've had the opportunity to move their resources to try to protect their assets that they think that sanctions could influence," Stratton said.

Neither could speculate on how this will all end. In fact, Ciobanu said that Putin may not know himself.

Ciobanu said that while he is confident Putin will be stopped, he said it will take more than sanctions.

"There is no alternative to negotiations and peaceful solution of these conflicts," Ciabanu said. "It is better to negotiate 100 years than to fight one year or one day."



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