Tropical Depression Two formed this afternoon in the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The initial position of the depression as well as the coordinates as of 5 PM Monday are shown below:
The depression is moving through an area where sea-surface temperatures are adequate for development, with SSTs ranging from 81 to 83 degrees along the track of the system (shown below).
The biggest problem for T.D. Two is that it will be moving into a large region of dry air that will greatly limit any potential for strengthening. The brown areas below show the extent of the dry air over the central Atlantic.
Based on the SSTs and dry air ahead of the system, the current intensity of 35 mph is where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping Tropical Depression Two. The track is shown below, and assumes that the depression will dissipate as it passes over the Windward and Leeward Islands in 72 hours.
If this depression surprises us and strengthens into a tropical storm as the LGEM and SHIPS models suggest, it would be named Tropical Storm Bertha.
-Zach
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