RICHMOND, Va. -- While the race for President takes up most of the political oxygen in 2024, Virginia voters have less than one week left to cast ballots in critical congressional primaries across the Commonwealth.
In Virginia, voters do not register for a political party and can pick which primary they vote in (but can only pick one).
There are several primary races across Central Virginia — which is CBS 6's coverage area — but one in particular has drawn national attention.
In Virginia's sprawling 5th Congressional District — which includes all of both Powhatan and Goochland and part of Hanover — Rep. Bob Good is facing a challenge from State Senator John McGuire for the Republican nomination. In a district former Good won easily two years ago, the winner of the primary will almost certainly win in the fall.
"This is not a debate about or an election about policy or viewpoints or anything like that. It’s a debate about loyalty," said CBS6 Political Analyst Dr. Bob Holsworth.
Both Good and McGuire boast their conservative bonafides on issues like border policy, abortion, and other key areas, Holsworth said, but Good initially endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary before DeSantis dropped out, and McGuire has closely tied himself to former President Trump.
"We're going to have to see what happens. Bob Good still, I think, has the loyalty of a lot of the local Republican committee chairs throughout the district. But at the same time, John McGuire has Donald Trump making a commercial for John McGuire, basically saying that Bob Good betrayed [Trump]. A lot of people think that's going to have an impact," Holsworth said.
In the 5th District, Democrats are choosing between Paul Riley, Gary Terry, and Gloria Witt.
Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Tim Kaine is seeking his third term in the U.S. Senate. The former VP nominee brings plenty of funding and name recognition against the winner of the five-way GOP nominating contest.
Retired Navy Cpt. Hung Cao, constitutional attorney Jonathan Emord, Army veteran Eddie Garcia, former DeSantis Chief of Staff Scott Parkinson, andattorney Chuck Smith are vying for the opportunity to challenge Kaine.
Cao brings the most funding and seemingly the most name recognition of the group, after running an unsuccessful bid against Rep. Jennifer Wexton in 2022.
"All the contenders are essentially going to be MAGA Republicans," Holsworth said of the GOP Senate candidates. "While that is very important for the primary, that might make it more difficult to defeat Tim Kaine."
Some Virginia Republicans believe the Commonwealth could be in play for former President Trump this fall after some recent polling found the race is close, despite President Biden's relatively easy win in Virginia in 2020. Still, Holsworth said at this point he doubts Biden's low approval rating will drag down Kaine enough to matter.
"It's hard to believe, at the end of the day, there's going to be that many split-ticket voters. That there's going to be voters who are going to vote for Donald Trump, and then turn around and vote for Tim Kaine in Virginia. That just doesn't make a lot of sense to me," Holsworth said.
In the 1st District, which stretches from Chesterfield to Henrico and through the Northern Neck and the Peninsula region, two Democrats are seeking to challengeRep. Rob Wittman (R). Herb Jones lost to Wittman in 2022, and Leslie Mehta is vying for the nomination.
In the Northern Virginia anchored 7th District, more than a dozen candidates are seeking their party's nomination to fill the seat Rep. Abigail Spanberger will vacate next year as she runs for Governor.
You can learn more about the other primaries in Virginia via the Virginia Public Access Project.
Holsworth said it remains to be seen how the two presidential candidates, both deeply unpopular with different portions of the electorate, will weight on down ballot races.
“I don’t know what way the trickle is going to go," Holsworth said, adding those voters who dislike both presidential candidates will play a big role in that race. “People in my business are basically saying that in the presidential race, maybe people who are what they call double haters will actually decide the election.”
The final day of early voting in Virginia's primary elections is Saturday, June 15th. Primary Election Day is June 18th.
You can find more information about casting your ballot through the Virginia Department of Elections.
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