Tracking winter storm for Monday into Tuesday

Posted at 7:39 AM, Mar 11, 2017

RICHMOND, Va.  --  We continue to track a storm for late Monday into Tuesday.  Some energy currently near the Pacific northwest will try to phase with an area of low pressure off the southeastern United States coast.

The computer models continue to change the finer details, which is critical to determine the precipitation type and any snowfall amounts. The track of the coastal low will be pretty close to the coast, which will bring some warmer air into the state.

It looks like we will see some light snow or a wintry mix begin towards Monday evening.  This may even be completely rain across southeastern Virginia.

Warmer air will move in from the southeast Monday night into Tuesday morning, and this will change things mostly to rain for Richmond and points east and southeast.  Areas northwest of Richmond will see a mix, possibly with some rain at times.  Western Virginia (closer to I-81) will stay mostly snow.

Colder air will move back in on Tuesday, and the metro will see the rain change to a wintry mix and some snow for a period.  Areas far east and southeast will see rain and some mix, areas far northwest will see all snow.  Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s, and the bulk of the precipitation will shut off by early afternoon.

With the current thinking, this change to a rain and mix would limit snow totals for Richmond and points east and southeast.  The best chance of seeing decent snow accumulation will be closer to I-81.

More data will come in the rest of the weekend and the forecast will continue to be adjusted.  Please keep in mind, this storm for Monday into Tuesday is based on some energy in the Pacific and some that will form off the southeastern United States.  If the forecast track from the computer models is even just 50 miles off, it means a big difference in the outcome.  In other words, if you peruse the internet and see snowfall accumulation maps, don't freak out.  Nothing about this storm is certain as of yet.

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