Political Prediction Market: Trump rises, Rubio slips

Posted at 9:52 PM, Dec 04, 2015
and last updated 2015-12-04 21:52:26-05

Donald Trump’s odds to win the Republican nomination are on the rise as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s have slipped, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market, an online game.

Trump’s odds on the Political Prediction Market have typically lagged his strong showing in voter polls. But the two numbers have come closer together of late. A CNN/ORC poll of Republican and Republican-leaning voters was released Friday and it showed Trump with 36% support. Before that CNN/ORC survey was released on Friday, Trump’s odds to win the nomination stood at 22% on the Political Prediction Market, an online and unscientific game that factors polling and other data along with input from players who predict what will happen in politics.

After the CNN poll with Trump’s strong showing was released, his odds on the prediction market quickly rose to 28%.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has not performed nearly as well as Trump in opinion polls. But on the Political Prediction Market, Rubio has done much better. He still has the best odds, but after the CNN poll showed him in fourth place with 12% support, his standing on the Political Prediction Market decreased in one day from 44% to 36%.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s odds, meanwhile, increased from 21% to 24% after the poll was released. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had 3% support in the national poll, but his odds according to players on the Political Prediction Market are at 4%.

For Democrats, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who at one point boasted greater than 30% odds to win the Democratic nomination, has dropped to single-digit odds.

He peaked in the Prediction Market at 31% odds on September 16 and has been mostly on the decline since.

The last time the Vermont senator had a double-digit chance was on November 19, with 11% odds for the nomination. He is now at a 6% chance for the nomination.

Clinton, however, holds her highest lead yet in the Prediction Market — with a 93% chance to win the nomination. The former secretary of state emerged strong from October, when she conquered long-lasting Benghazi hearings and Vice President Joe Biden decided not to join the race for president.

A CNN/ORC poll released Friday finds that Clinton still holds the lead among Democratic voters. She beat Sanders with a 28-point margin, with 58% from voters polled compared to Sanders’ 30%. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is at 2%.