Update on Wednesday-Thursday winter storm

Posted at 11:43 PM, Feb 09, 2014

RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) – We have been talking about the potential for this storm for just about a week now.  It should affect our area Wednesday into Thursday.  Additional runs of computer models through early Wednesday will help us fine-tune the very specific points, but the storm track falls into some main categories.

When the low is just off the coast, it is close enough to dump heavy snowfall across the majority of the viewing area.  At this point, this track is a possibility, but not the most likely choice.blogsnap

A second possible track is when the low moves up the eastern states, but lies inland.  This keeps any decent snow close to the mountains, and mainly rain near the coast.  The I-95 corridor usually sees a mix changing to rain.  This appears like a low possibility.


A third possibility, and what looks to be the most likely as of now, is for the storm to move up the eastern seaboard.  This puts moderate to heavy snow through the western half of the state, and snow/mix/rain at the coast.  The central parts of the state will see snow changing to a mix, and then perhaps to all rain.blogsnap3 During Wednesday, snow will spread in from the south.  Most areas should see snow by the late afternoon.  It may be warm enough for a mix or some rain near the coast. MG1

During Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, some warmer air will move in from the east.  Western Virginia will stay all snow.  Central Virginia will see a wintry mix.  Eastern Virginia will see rain.MG2

As the storm departs on Thursday, there may be enough warm air around to cause more rain or a mix in the eastern half of the state.MG3

In terms of snowfall accumulations, the highest chance of getting some decent snowfall will be the western third of the state.  Eastern Virginia will have more rain and mixed precip to keep snow totals down.  Central Virginia could see a moderate snowfall accumulation, before it transitions to a mix and rain.blogsnap4

One thing we want to emphasize:  these computer models are based on data from earlier stages of the storm thousands of miles from our area.  As more data is obtained the next few days, a lot of the general details will get more clear-cut.  Keep in mind, a shift in track of 100 miles will move the rain/mix/snow lines across the state.  It is important that you continue to check in for updates through Tuesday and Wednesday.

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