The major storm system that brought over two feet of snow in the Dakotas and tornadoes in the Plains and Midwest will move through Virginia on Monday.
We will not see the full power of the storm system, but we should receive at least a few hours of badly-needed rainfall. Richmond International Airport has received less than 1.50″ of rainfall since September 1.
Showers and storms will be across the western third of the state in the morning, and that area of rainfall will shift eastward, affecting central Virginia by early afternoon and eastern Virginia by late afternoon.
Multiple runs of a suite of computer models shows a range in potential rainfall from around one-quarter inch to around two inches of rainfall. The average of around 20 different models works out to around three-quarters of an inch of rain.
Organized severe weather is not expected, but a gusty storm or two is possible. Ahead of this cold front, it will remain warm and humid, allowing rain and storms to produce moderate to heavy totals in some locations.
Richmond saw two 90° days within the first week of October. Had we hit 90° on Sunday, that would have been the first time the first week of October had more than two 90° days in around 60 years.
In wake of the cold front, much cooler weather will return to the area for Tuesday and the rest of the week. This will end the stretch of days that had high temperatures around 15° above normal.
We are seeing signs of the potential for an area of low pressure to sit just off the mid-Atlantic coast. The exact position and track will determine our local weather. As of now, it looks like a predominate northeasterly wind flow will keep temperatures in the lower 70s much of the week into next weekend. We should see some additional cloudiness for mid and late week, especially in the eastern half of the state. Rain potential is highest near the coast, but if the low moves a bit farther westward, we could see some showers in the metro for a few days in the Thursday-Sunday time period.
