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Isaac should become a hurricane soon in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted at 6:11 AM, Aug 27, 2012
and last updated 2012-08-27 06:35:51-04

RICHMOND, Va. (WTVR) – Overnight Sunday into early Monday morning, Tropical Storm Isaac has not yet experienced much change in its strength, with continued maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. However, Isaac is moving over very favorable, warm surface waters of the open Gulf of Mexico. In addition, Isaac will encounter minimal wind shear (which can disrupt the organization and structure of a cyclone), allowing for better organization over the next day. Here is the 5 a.m. EDT update:

The exact location where the center of Isaac will make landfall remains uncertain, with the most likely landfall somewhere along the Louisiana Gulf Coast late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Intensity forecasts put Isaac as a Category One hurricane, potentially a borderline Category Two.

It is important not to pay as close attention to the red line, but rather to the spread of impact because Isaac’s impacts will be felt anywhere within the white boundary lines of the forecast cone. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and tornadoes will be probable along these Gulf Coast states.

In addition, tropical forecast computer scenarios still show significant variability as to the exact “pinpoint” landfall location, but most of them are in agreement that Louisiana will be the landfalling state. 

As you can see by the forecast plots, Isaac is expected to track farther inland, lose its tropical characteristics, but maintain ample moisture for continued heavy rainfall well into the upper Mississippi Valley region and Midwest. An upper-level short wave from the Northern Plains will carry Isaac’s moisture with it, potentially eastward enough to bring Virginia rain and thunderstorms this upcoming weekend.

CLICK HERE to keep up with the latest track and live video of Isaac along the Gulf Coast.

Meteorologist Carrie Rose
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