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Debby’s forecast track uncertain

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Posted at 6:03 PM, Jun 24, 2012
and last updated 2012-06-24 18:03:46-04

Tropical storm Debby has been hanging out in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico over the past 24 hours, and has moved very little.  The storm is gradually drifting to the north, and it appears that there may not be much of a change in direction over the next five days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made a drastic change in its forecast track.  Previous forecasts had Debby traveling westward across the Gulf of Mexico, and making a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast.  However, based on some new computer model output, the NHC has modified its official track to be mainly just a drift to the north.  This would have it make landfall as a tropical storm across western Florida later this week.

Debby is not expected to make a major change in strength.  However, with her position being virtually stationary over the next few days, intense rainfall will plague the eastern Gulf states.  Much of Florida, and parts of southern Alabama & southern Georgia, could receive over 15 inches of rainfall in the next 5 days.  Isolated totals of over 20 inches are possible.

Debby definitely bears watching the next few days.  The plot of the various computer models shows that there is very little consensus on the future track.